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[CS.AI] The Benjamini-Hochberg Procedure's FDR Control Failure

Published at: 2026-07-16 22:00 Last updated: 2026-07-17 08:45
#algorithm #optimization #Math

This paper demonstrates that the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure can fail to control the false discovery rate (FDR) for correlated two-sided Gaussian $p$-values. A factor model is constructed such that, at a significance level of $\alpha=0.01$, a rigorous interval-arithmetic certificate proves that the FDR is 0.0104 for all sufficiently large numbers of hypotheses.

This result disproves a conjecture that has been widely believed to be true for twenty years. Monte Carlo experiments are consistent with the theoretical outcome. The proof was obtained by GPT-5.6 Pro and carefully verified by the author.

Blogger's Review: This article highlights the limitations of the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure under specific conditions, challenging a long-held consensus. By combining theory and empirical evidence, the author effectively illustrates the complexities of controlling false discovery rates in high-dimensional data analysis, warranting deeper contemplation and attention from the statistical community.

Original Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.12208

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