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[CS.AI] New Methods for Long-Term Decision Making Under Risk

Published at: 2026-07-23 22:00 Last updated: 2026-07-26 07:44
#algorithm #optimization #Dynamic Programming

In this paper, we study finite-horizon Markov Decision Process (MDP) planning under root-based (resolute) risk objectives. These objectives apply a rank-dependent functional to the distribution of total returns, introducing non-linearity that generally breaks Bellman optimality, making direct optimization through scenario-tree enumeration intractable.

To address this, we propose a novel method called ERQDP, which is enumeration-free and sampling-free, solving a rank-quantile surrogate via exact Dynamic Programming (DP). This method evaluates candidate policies exactly by DP over return Probability Mass Functions (PMFs) on a discretized return grid, with an explicit rounding bound, and refines the surrogate in an anytime loop that reports an explicit upper-lower gap (certificate) for the target objective up to discretization budgets.

Across tested benchmarks, ERQDP returns certified solutions or explicit residual gaps, enables fast risk-parameter sweeps with substantial runtime gains, and supports both risk-averse and risk-seeking behaviors.

Blogger's Review: This research introduces the ERQDP method, providing an effective approach to tackle complex risk decision-making problems, overcoming the limitations of traditional methods, and holds significant theoretical and practical implications.

Original Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.19914

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