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[CS.AI] Robust Dempster-Shafer Evidence Fusion with Chaos-Conflict Measurement and Historical-Experience Weighting

Published at: 2026-08-15 22:00 Last updated: 2026-08-16 07:03
#Machine Learning #Artificial Intelligence #Dempster-Shafer Theory

This paper proposes a unified evidence reasoning framework that addresses two limitations of multi-source evidence fusion under Dempster-Shafer theory. A chaos-conflict measurement is introduced to jointly quantify cross-evidence conflict and intra-evidence non-specificity, with five formally proven properties ensuring consistent assessment. A historical experience driven weighting scheme partitions the decision space via spectral clustering and applies regret theory to compute context-specific reliability profiles from past fusion outcomes. These mechanisms feed into a hybrid combination rule that adaptively balances uncertainty preservation against weighted consensus, controlled by the global conflict level, followed by a belief-interval decision strategy that enables robust classification without discarding epistemic uncertainty. Experiments on 16 real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves an average F1 score of 85.78 and a mean AUC of 93.30, outperforming eight DST-based baselines and three gradient boosting methods. Ablation analysis confirms the contribution of each component we proposed. Blogger's Review: The proposed evidence fusion framework has significant implications for addressing robustness and uncertainty in multi-source decision making, and is worthy of further research and application.

Original Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.13108

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