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[CS.AI] Simulating the Marginal Green Contribution of AI Modules in a Smart Agriculture Platform: Evidence from Two Monte Carlo Experiments

Published at: 2026-09-10 22:00 Last updated: 2026-09-12 06:35
#AI #Machine Learning #optimization

Smart‑agriculture platforms usually bundle AI diagnosis, IoT sensing and decision push, making it hard to attribute green benefits to each component and leaving resource allocation without quantitative evidence. Building on a previous platform‑level Monte Carlo assessment, this paper makes the components explicit and conducts two controlled simulation experiments.\ \ Experiment 1 follows the chain AI capability → farmer behavior → pesticide/fertilizer input reduction. The pesticide‑reduction model is\ $$R_{p}=s_{blind}\times e_{presc}\times c_{touch}\times a$$\ where $s_{blind}$ is the avoidable blind‑application share, $e_{presc}$ the prescription effectiveness, $c_{touch}$ the decision‑touch coverage, and $a$ the adoption rate. Fertilizer reduction uses the same structure. Compared with an experienced‑extension mode, the probability of achieving a 20% pesticide reduction is essentially zero in the extension mode, 20.7% at baseline for AI, and rises to 49% when diagnosis accuracy is 0.95 and adoption is 0.85. The probability of a 15% fertilizer reduction climbs from near zero to 52.0%.\ \ Experiment 2 compares current practice (P0), IoT engineering retrofit (P1), and P1 plus AI irrigation scheduling (P2). Median aggregate water saving increases from 7.8% (P0) to 11.0% (P1) and 16.0% (P2), with AI adding 5.0 percentage points beyond engineering alone. Paddy CH4 emissions drop to 30.5% under AI scheduling versus 19.8% with manual operation, and the rice‑irrigation‑methane subsystem’s carbon intensity declines by 27.9%.\ \ Sensitivity analyses consistently indicate that farmer adoption, not algorithm accuracy, is the primary bottleneck for meeting green targets, and that AI data fusion remains robust to soil‑moisture sensing errors.\ \ This work provides a reproducible simulation framework for component‑level green‑value evaluation and promotion‑strategy optimization of smart‑agriculture platforms.\ \ Review: The experiments highlight farmer adoption as the decisive factor for green impact; while high AI accuracy contributes, effective outreach and incentive mechanisms are essential to unlock the full environmental benefits of smart‑agriculture systems.

Original Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06740

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