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[CS.AI] Textual Environmental Context and Spatial Graphs for LLM-Based Regional SST Forecasting

Published at: 2026-10-08 22:00 Last updated: 2026-10-12 00:49
#AI #Machine Learning #LLM

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasting relies on local temporal persistence, regional spatial dependence, and environmental conditions that evolve with the forecast date. This paper presents a way to feed these heterogeneous cues to a large language model (LLM) for regional multi‑step prediction without serializing the full SST grid as text. Forecasting is cast as conditional numerical generation: historical SST and anomaly sequences, date‑aligned environmental records, and static ocean knowledge form a textual context, while regional spatial state is supplied via continuous graph prefixes. A static graph encodes persistent geographic‑climatological relations; a dynamic graph captures recent SST correlations and localized tropical‑cyclone influence. Two graph neural networks produce a target‑node representation, which is mapped by a spatial‑prefix fusion and injected into the LLM input. Experiments on South China Sea SST forecasting show that the full configuration achieves the lowest MAE and highest $R^2$ across ten forecast steps, outperforming all baselines. In addition to numerical forecasts, a rule‑based module matches predicted trends and environmental‑factor directions with knowledge‑base entries, delivering source‑linked post‑hoc explanations.

Review: The approach elegantly merges textual context with graph‑derived spatial cues, enabling LLMs to exploit both environmental and spatial dependencies for accurate regional SST forecasts while offering interpretability.

Original Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.07895

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